SIBOR

MAS has just announced it will “increase the slope of its policy band slightly for a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar”. Two days before the announcement, the USD/SGD rate already started to decline from the recent high of 1.26. This bodes well for home loan rates, where SOR has already fallen below Sibor for 3 weeks. Given the Fed’s apparent commitment to keep rates low through 2014, which is actually just a forecast and not set in stone, it appears that interest rates will probably remain subdued for a while at least. Meanwhile, despite repeated attempts to suppress oil price, it managed to stay above US$102. This could be a sign of QE3?

The London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) came into the limelight recently. As mentioned in the news articles, the US Dollar Libor affects the cost of borrowing $10 trillion worth of loan and another $350 trillion in derivatives.

The 3-Month SIBOR has dropped a notch from 0.44% to 0.31%, bringing it lower than SOR once again. SIBOR-pegged loans are now more attractive than SOR-pegged ones. This is also partly due to the absence of SOR-pegged loans currently being offered. Banks probably withdrew them after being spooked by the negative SOR back in August.

The last time SOR and SIBOR crossed path was way back in May 2009. That was when SOR fell below SIBOR and remained so for more than 2 years. The recent sharp increase in USD/SGD exchange rates (from 1.2 to 1.3 in 3 weeks) took SOR from -0.1 to 0.35 over the same period. It looks like MAS has kept the USD/SGD rate bounded at 1.3 for now, so SOR will likely stabilise, although it is to be noted that LIBOR has been on an increasing trend.

I have mentioned in my previous post that those of us who have taken up a SOR or SIBOR pegged loan may find ourselves at risk of having to pay a 1.5% penalty when doing a full redemption not on the rate repricing date.